Re-Sign Juan Rivera - NOW!

So, the signing of Gary Matthews Jr. was panned throughout the Halosphere when it was signed. I talked about it here. Rob at 6-4-2 talked about it here. Rev Halofan talked about it here. There were lots of reasons to hate that signing - from the length of the contract to the crazy cash, to the fact that Matthews Jr. pretty much sucks at baseball. But I also thought that this ill-advised deal spelled the doom of Juan Rivera in Angel Red. Sure, he wasn't going to play much in 2007 after breaking his leg in winter ball between his breakout 2006 season and spring training 2007, but when he DID recover, he had nowhere to play.

Rivera, if you recall, crushed the ball in the 2nd half of 2006 to the tune of .335/.381/.538. That is Teixeira territory folks. That was flat out sick. He cemented his place in the Halos plans that season. Unfortunately, he broke his leg and needed 9 months to recover. he returned in 2007 to post very modest numbers in limited action.

After the signing of Torii Hunter in the 2007 offseason, there was REALLY nowhere to put Johnny Rivers. During the first half of 2008 Matthews Jr. was given every opportunity to play himself out of a career-long funk, to no avail. So, finally, mercifully, in late June, Mike Scioscia started playing Juan Rivera instead of Matthews and his $50 million contract. The first game was here - a 1-0 win over the Dodgers where Juan collected 2 of the teams 6 hits. And he has continued to hit. And hit.

Rivera has played in 20 of the 25 team games in July and started 15 of the last 17. In July, Rivera has hit .316 with an OBP of .379 and a SLG of .596. He his 5 HR's and knocked in 13 runs while drawing 7 walks. He isn't a walk drawing machine, but he will never be confused with Garret Anderson or Howie Kendrick either. He can work the count and lay off pitches when needed.

Rivera posted an OPS of .975 in July. Is he as good defensively as Matthews Jr. in LF/RF? No way, but Matthews Jr. isn't .300 points of OPS better with the glove. Not even close.

So, this brings me to my initial point: should the Halos resign Rivera to play the OF in 2009 and beyond. My answer is an emphatic "Yes".

I said - back in December of 2007 - that the Halos should re-up Rivera then to a low-risk high-reward contract of 2 or 3 years at $5 to $7 million per year. That seemed high to a lot of folks at the time, but José Guillen signed a 3 year $36 million deal with Kansas City last offseason and Guillen is a pretty good comp for Rivera. Rivera was NEVER given a good shot to start in the majors before 2006 and he crushed that year. Then, broke his leg and lost a year to surgery and recovery.

Anyway, this post is far too long for the simplicity of the answer. I would sign Juan Rivera right now for 3 years at $8 to $10 million per year. He could anchor LF or RF (depending on the result w/ Vlad) and give the team .360/.500 production. For a team with as little pop as the Halos this needs to happen to solidify the Vlad protection past 2008. Remember, Teixeira will probably fly the coop this offseason.

Extend the contract of Vlad Guerrero?

So, this winter Angels GM Tony Reagins will be trying to extend or resign Vlad Guerrero, Mark Teixeira, Frankie Rodriguez, Juan Rivera (hopefully), Garret Anderson (hopefully not) and maybe John Lackey.

Here is my take on Vlad...

I'll do similar write ups on all of them this week..

Vlad Guerrero

Should they let him walk if he continues to fall off the cliff that got him this year? Methinks his decline is real – and it is fabulous.

His SLG has dropped for four straight years. From .598 in 2004 to .478 so far this year. He has seen his OBP go from a great .403 to a mediocre .346.

I am all for picking up the option next year. But, if those numbers continue to track downward next year you can’t resign him. Not for $20 million per, or whatever he might want to get. That would be a travesty.

How much do you pay for a guy putting up .350/.475 in RF? Those are Kotchman numbers and we as much as we loved Kotchman no one thought he was a $20 million player. And that is before Vlad and his awful RF defense.

It all depends on how steep this decline is. Another year will give Arte and Tony a good idea about how Vlad is aging. I would wait until the end of next year before I thought about an extension.

We’ll see in November.

Teixeira/Kotchman Swap: Day 2

My first reaction to the deal was frustration because the net gain in runs this year - or in a short series - is minimal. The team has a 12 game lead - they are going to make the playoffs. My immediate thoughts went to the fact that resigning Teixeira will be near impossible and then, "who starts at 1st base in 2009". Well, Kendry Morales is the answer to that question, like it or not. He is similar to Kotchman v. 2008. So there isn't a big drop offensively. Defensively, that is another story. But, this deal does help in 2008 - and if Teixeira blows up in the post-season he could be a HUGE difference. We'll see how this plays out in October/November. Because Kendry is able to emulate Kotchman in 2009 - this deal is really quite good. It is a win/win for the Halos. They get Teix now and aren't REQUIRED to resign him because they have an in-house replacement that is similar in production to the guy they traded for Teixeira.

What I appreciated about Kotchman was his eye and ability to draw a walk. I knew he had doubles power, but figured it would increase as he aged, and coupled with his good eye, he could hit 22-28 HR's a year. Well, Kotchman has regressed this year - I wrote a big post on this (specifically his BB rate) last week on Halos Heaven.

As a few of my comrades from HH and other Angel blogs rightly pointed out that Kotch - when he is patient - has the ability to show good power. This year he is - for whatever reason - swinging earlier in the count and performing worse than last year. But, 2007 was a good year for a 24 year-old, especially when I considered that he would be progressing for a couple of years. If he is heading to an organization that respects plate discipline, maybe his BB rate can return to pre-2008 levels. If so, his development will continue upward. His BB rate this year is 4.7% of PA's. It was 10%+ last year. A few of us speculated that Mickey Hatcher might have finally caught up with him - along with GA. Hopefully a change of scenery and coaching will bring back that important part of Kotchman's game.

Anyway, here's to hoping that he rediscovers his ability to draw ball four in ATL and help the Braves for years to come. He is a class act and a stunning defensive first baseman.

Kotchman & Marek traded for Teixeira

So, you have certainly seen the news by now that 1st baseman Casey Kotchman and AA RHRP Stephen Marek were traded to the Atlanta Braves for switch-hitting 1st baseman Mark Teixeira.

This deal, without question, makes the Halos better in 2008. But, looking forward, there are questions to deal with.

Teixeira is represented by Scott Boras and has stated publicly in the past that he wants to play on the east coast. He is a 28-year old thumper of a hitter with a good, good glove at 1st base. He has a career OPS of .909. He draws walks and hits for power. Something the Halos need a lot of - as does every other team in MLB with hopes of competing year in and year out.

Contract negotiations with Teix will begin - at least - with a 5-year deal for $90 million bucks. But, it is rumored that he wants at least $20 million per year.

There is no question that Teix is a better - much better - player than Kotchman. The question is this: is he worth $20 million more than Kotchman? That is what he will cost next year. $20 million more than Kotch. If they can sign Teixeira at all.

If Teixeira walks at the end of the year, the Halos are looking to enter 2009 with Kendry Morales as the starting 1st baseman. He is Kotchman-lite. He doesn't have the high OBP history of Kotchman and he is a butcher with the glove compared to Casey.

Anyway, simply put. In 2008, the Halos are better with Teixeira. In 2009, if Teixeira signs elsewhere, the Halos will have the pleasure of watching Kotchman enter his prime in the NL while they watch Kendry Morales try to figure out how to be a major-leaguer on a team that will expect to compete.

Fun with Lineup Analysis...

There is a great tool available online via Baseball Musings called the Lineup Analysis Tool.  Basically, you input the names, OBP and SLG for the nine guys in the starting lineup and through a series of calculations, the software tells you how many runs that lineup will score (on average).  Sounds cool, huh?  Well, it goes a step further.  It also spits out the best and worst alternative lineups using the same names and stats.  

So, if you are curious is batting Izturis third is a problem, you can test your hypothesis with this tool.  If you think that Napoli, no matter how low his BA gets, is the better offensive force, you can test that.  So, tonight is the first post in a short series of work I will publish here and on Halos Heaven dealing with the 2008 L.A. Angels, their offense and their lineups.

For starters, here is the lineup (w/ 2008 stats) that I used as a baseline.  This is the lineup that Scioscia is using right now.  It is a lineup without Matthews Jr. and with Jeff Mathis catching.  Similarly, I named Izturis the starting shortstop because he is getting the lion's share of starts right now.

Figgy (.372/.319) 

Kotchman (.330/.445)

Izturis (.325/.350)

Vlad (.347/.482)

Hunter (.342/.479)

Anderson (.308/.398)

Kendrick (.355/.502)

Rivera (.308/.422)

Mathis (.302/.376)

Now, these numbers will shift from moment to moment and day to day.  I used the numbers from Sunday night, July 27.  Hopefully, you are screaming at your computer right now.  Because these are not good numbers.  Rivera is raking, and most of these numbers are below the career norms for these players - especially Vlad who sports a career line of .390/.575.  But, I am going to run many numbers - career numbers, three-year average numbers, 2007 numbers, 2006 numbers, etc.  So, I should cover a wide array of possibilities.  

So, the above lineup - with those stats - will average 4.795 runs per game.

The optimal ordering of those players yields an average of 4.870 runs per game.  A modest increase.  But how is the lineup different to account for an extra tenth of a run per game.  Here is how:

Figgins

Kendrick

Kotchman

Guerrero

Hunter

Anderson

Mathis

Rivera

Izturis

That lineup LOOKS better intuitively.  Why?  Well, Kendrick should not be hitting below 5th in the order.  He leads the team in OPS and is just a better hitter than most everyone on the team right now and the fact that he is routinely hitting behind Izzy or Anderson - not to mention Aybar! - is silly.  He needs AB's.  A lot of them.  But, that is the only glaring change from what Scioscia is putting out there on a daily basis.

What if we replace Anderson with a favorite of mine - OBP machine Reggie Willits?  Well - using his 2008 numbers seems unfair.  He hasn't played much at all and has not posted good numbers.  What if we use his career line - something bolstered by his great season last year and slightly diminished by his sporadic play and performance this year.  That line is: .380/.325.  

Here is the lineup I used with Willits in place of GA:

Figgy

Kendrick

Kotchman

Guerrero

Hunter

Rivera

Mathis

Izturis

Willits (.380/.325)

This lineup generated 4.932 runs per game.  That is an increase of .14 runs per game.  Which means every week the Halos score 1 more run.  That means that the team scores about 23 more runs per year and that equates to roughly 2 extra wins a year if all else remains equal.  That isn't a small increase in offense over the course of the year.

Also, the tool changed the lineup to create even more runs!

To get to 4.96 runs with this crew, the tool spit out the following lineup:

Willits

Kendrick

Kotchman

Guerrero

Hunter

Mathis

Izturis

Rivera

Figgins

This lineup would score about 27 more runs per year.  Now we are approaching 3 extra wins by putting the right guys in the lineup.

What if we start making adjustments based on past performance.  Like - using Rivera's career numbers instead of his weak 2008 numbers.  This is fine because at 30, Rivera isn't in decline and as we have seen - he seems healthy and productive.  If we used 2006 numbers that would be a bit optimistic.  Using his career numbers seems fair.  And, how bout we replace Mathis with Napoli to see what that does.  I won't change the order, just plug in new guys w/ their new numbers.

Here is the lineup I'll look at now - this is a fairly safe bet for what Scioscia would put out there...

Figgy

Kotchman

Izturis

Guerrero

Hunter

Anderson

Kendrick

Rivera (.338/.470) career

Napoli (.308/.472) 2008

This lineup generated 4.964 runs per game.  Now we're getting somewhere....

When the software optimizes the lineup we move to 5.086 runs per game with a lineup of:

Figgy

Kendrick

Rivera (!)

Guerrero

Hunter

Kotchman

Anderson

Napoli

Izturis

So, comparing this lineup with the first one I listed above we get real change.  The Halos will score 47.1 more runs by replacing Mathis w/ Napoli (when Nipples is healthy, of course) and moving Rivera and Kendrick up in the lineup and Kotchman and Izturis down.

That is 4 to 5 wins over the course of the year.  I'll continue to work on this and post another entry in the coming days...

Kotchman - WHAAAAA HAPPENED???

I decided to look at the Halo stats last night for shits and giggles when I stumbled upon what I thought must be a typo...

Kotchman has 18 walks this year.  Eighteen!

That is GA-erific.  That is Howie-esque!  Kotchman isn't emulating the patient, double-ish Mark Grace like we thought, but channeling much lesser first baseman...like J.T. Snow.

I hadn't noticed that his walk rate dropped so much between 2007 and 2008.  Last year he walked in 10.7% of his PA's.  This year it is down to an enimic 4.7% of his PA's.  His OBP is only .330.  That is horrible compared to the .372 he put up last year.  He has lost .72 points of OPS this year.  That is a serious regression.

I am worried about him - big time.  Never thought I'd say that, and I am more than a little worried that the teams hack-first-ask-questions-later approach is impacting the first legit OBP guy the system has produced since...

wait for it...

Troy Glaus

and before that...

Tim Salmon and Jimmy Edmonds.

Can Kendry be in Baltimore by 4 PM today?

Gary Matthews injured - Gene Autry is smiling...

Matthews has a slight tear in his ACL and is out indefinitely.  I couldn't be happier.  This will force Scioscia to keep Matthews on the pine and insert Rivera or Willits into the lineup on a daily basis for a while.  

Rivera had already supplanted Matthews, and put up great numbers in July - with an OBP of .455 and a SLG of .704.  But, this will make the move a little less likely to dissolve after a couple of bad games from Rivera or a sudden return to ignorant deference to veterans by Scioscia.  It is his most glaring weakness as a manager.

Anyway, I don't love rooting for injury, but as injuries go, this is a net positive for the team on the offensive side of the equation.