Teixeira/Kotchman Swap: Day 2

My first reaction to the deal was frustration because the net gain in runs this year - or in a short series - is minimal. The team has a 12 game lead - they are going to make the playoffs. My immediate thoughts went to the fact that resigning Teixeira will be near impossible and then, "who starts at 1st base in 2009". Well, Kendry Morales is the answer to that question, like it or not. He is similar to Kotchman v. 2008. So there isn't a big drop offensively. Defensively, that is another story. But, this deal does help in 2008 - and if Teixeira blows up in the post-season he could be a HUGE difference. We'll see how this plays out in October/November. Because Kendry is able to emulate Kotchman in 2009 - this deal is really quite good. It is a win/win for the Halos. They get Teix now and aren't REQUIRED to resign him because they have an in-house replacement that is similar in production to the guy they traded for Teixeira.

What I appreciated about Kotchman was his eye and ability to draw a walk. I knew he had doubles power, but figured it would increase as he aged, and coupled with his good eye, he could hit 22-28 HR's a year. Well, Kotchman has regressed this year - I wrote a big post on this (specifically his BB rate) last week on Halos Heaven.

As a few of my comrades from HH and other Angel blogs rightly pointed out that Kotch - when he is patient - has the ability to show good power. This year he is - for whatever reason - swinging earlier in the count and performing worse than last year. But, 2007 was a good year for a 24 year-old, especially when I considered that he would be progressing for a couple of years. If he is heading to an organization that respects plate discipline, maybe his BB rate can return to pre-2008 levels. If so, his development will continue upward. His BB rate this year is 4.7% of PA's. It was 10%+ last year. A few of us speculated that Mickey Hatcher might have finally caught up with him - along with GA. Hopefully a change of scenery and coaching will bring back that important part of Kotchman's game.

Anyway, here's to hoping that he rediscovers his ability to draw ball four in ATL and help the Braves for years to come. He is a class act and a stunning defensive first baseman.

Kotchman & Marek traded for Teixeira

So, you have certainly seen the news by now that 1st baseman Casey Kotchman and AA RHRP Stephen Marek were traded to the Atlanta Braves for switch-hitting 1st baseman Mark Teixeira.

This deal, without question, makes the Halos better in 2008. But, looking forward, there are questions to deal with.

Teixeira is represented by Scott Boras and has stated publicly in the past that he wants to play on the east coast. He is a 28-year old thumper of a hitter with a good, good glove at 1st base. He has a career OPS of .909. He draws walks and hits for power. Something the Halos need a lot of - as does every other team in MLB with hopes of competing year in and year out.

Contract negotiations with Teix will begin - at least - with a 5-year deal for $90 million bucks. But, it is rumored that he wants at least $20 million per year.

There is no question that Teix is a better - much better - player than Kotchman. The question is this: is he worth $20 million more than Kotchman? That is what he will cost next year. $20 million more than Kotch. If they can sign Teixeira at all.

If Teixeira walks at the end of the year, the Halos are looking to enter 2009 with Kendry Morales as the starting 1st baseman. He is Kotchman-lite. He doesn't have the high OBP history of Kotchman and he is a butcher with the glove compared to Casey.

Anyway, simply put. In 2008, the Halos are better with Teixeira. In 2009, if Teixeira signs elsewhere, the Halos will have the pleasure of watching Kotchman enter his prime in the NL while they watch Kendry Morales try to figure out how to be a major-leaguer on a team that will expect to compete.

Kotchman - WHAAAAA HAPPENED???

I decided to look at the Halo stats last night for shits and giggles when I stumbled upon what I thought must be a typo...

Kotchman has 18 walks this year.  Eighteen!

That is GA-erific.  That is Howie-esque!  Kotchman isn't emulating the patient, double-ish Mark Grace like we thought, but channeling much lesser first baseman...like J.T. Snow.

I hadn't noticed that his walk rate dropped so much between 2007 and 2008.  Last year he walked in 10.7% of his PA's.  This year it is down to an enimic 4.7% of his PA's.  His OBP is only .330.  That is horrible compared to the .372 he put up last year.  He has lost .72 points of OPS this year.  That is a serious regression.

I am worried about him - big time.  Never thought I'd say that, and I am more than a little worried that the teams hack-first-ask-questions-later approach is impacting the first legit OBP guy the system has produced since...

wait for it...

Troy Glaus

and before that...

Tim Salmon and Jimmy Edmonds.

Can Kendry be in Baltimore by 4 PM today?